Most analysts now say Rio Tinto’s days as an independent are numbered. The ongoing BHP Billiton takeover bid is only the beginning. A determined BHP – which has now held out the offer of a $30 billion share buy-back to sweeten the deal for Rio investors – will either succeed, with a hostile takeover if need be, or drive Rio into the arms of another suitor like Anglo American, whose CEO Cynthia Carroll is said to have a more aggressive approach to takeovers than even BHP’s Marius Klopper.

Rio is considered too big a financial bite for other interested parties like Xstrata to swallow. So the most likely outcomes are either a BHP success or a white knight takeover by Anglo.

Either way, the diamond mining industry is going to witness a major consolidation. Consider this:

Scenario 1: Argyle, Diavik and Ekati all under one banner.

Scenario 2: Debswana, the remaining South African mines controlled by De Beers, Argyle and Diavik as another single entity.

In the event of Scenario 1, will we see another sightholder system to rival De Beers?

In the event of Scenario 2, will the existing sightholders have to compete with a whole bunch of Rio sightholders for a consolidated sight?

Will the Oppenheimers still run the newly consolidated behemoth?

In either event, how difficult will it be to remain an independent operator buying from the open market?

This is going to be an interesting period to say the least.