The future of the diamond industry is tied up in numbers. Sheer numbers of stones. Everybody knows that the worldwide shortage in rough diamonds isn’t going to ease until someone finds a new mine with significant output.

While all the majors are out looking, the burgeoning crop of junior explorers is seen as the best bet in increasing the odds that something will be found. Juniors found Ekati and Diavik. Most of these juniors have managed to stay in the game by showing some promise in the field and then generating funding to sustain themselves through listing on London’s Alternate Investment Market (AIM) exchange. Their staying on in the game increases the odds that something significant will again be found.

According to this report, however, because of investor fatigue, while the existing junior explorers have a good chance of generating second rounds of funding, brand new explorers are now toast unless they can prove they have something outstanding. To prove that you have something outstanding, you have to first show you’ve hit something along the lines of Ekati or Diavik…

Pity, because if its sheer numbers we’re looking for, we need as many ants as can crawl over the anthill. Still, the existing juniors, along with the majors who we all tend to dismiss all to easily, have the necessary expertise to find new sources of diamonds. We may yet see another Argyle somewhere else in the world. But the odds just got longer.